Thank you for your support and interest in my site since its launch in mid-2019. Truly, it’s meant a lot.

And due to increased demand and the success of previous trades, I am introducing a premium subscription letter.

With the premium subscription, you’ll receive exclusive access to contrarian opportunities and insights that are often overlooked by the crowd. My goal is to provide value and share potential plays and trade ideas with like-minded rebel speculators.

As a premium subscriber, you can expect roughly 8-10 high-quality trade ideas per year. Whenever I discover a positively asymmetric opportunity with low risk and high reward, I will email it to you immediately upon publication. I will also provide updates on those positions.

Please note that I will no longer publish Potential Plays and Trade Ideas on the website. However, you can still access previously published trades for free in the ‘Potential Play’ category.

When it comes to trade ideas, I utilize my own option-pricing model and macro-fragility indicator (MFI) to identify mispriced securities, particularly options, that offer optionality (positive asymmetry) and antifragility (benefiting from volatility).

Or put simply, I look for macro-events that I believe are nearing a ‘tipping point’ and find positively asymmetric ways to play it (both long and short).

Like Nassim Taleb said: it’s not about the frequency of correctness – but the magnitude of correctness that matters (payoff from being right or wrong vs. probability of being right or wrong).

To give you a sense of previous successful plays, here are a few examples:

• Shorting Turkish stocks via buying put options on $TUR in March 2018 (+450%).
• Long U.S. bonds via buying shares of $TLT in November 2018 (+51%).
• Long gold mining equities via buying call options on $AUY in March 2019 (+550%).
• Shorting Hong Kong stocks via buying put options on $EWH in April 2019 (+325%).
• Long pork bellies via buying shares of Brazilian meat processing firm $JBSAY as a proxy in April 2019 (+70%).
• Shorting the British Pound via buying put options on $FXB in March 2019 (+126%).
• Shorting the bankrupt California power company PG&E via buying put options on $PCG in late-June 2019 (+1,100%).
• Long uranium via buying call options on $CCJ in January and October 2020 (combined returns +1,620).
• Short China via buying put options on $FXI in June 2021 (+370).
• Short Germany via buying put options on $EWG in November 2022 (+650).

In cases where trades did not work out, the limited/fixed downside was protected by the optionality, meaning the only potential loss was the upfront premiums paid for the options.

My focus is on providing ideas with significant upside compared to the downside, ensuring that losses are small when I’m wrong and gains are substantial when I’m right. I aim to deliver high-quality, independent views without bombarding you with daily emails or unnecessary hype.

I cannot guarantee that all my ideas will be successful, but I promise to offer my best insights and disclose any positions I hold. Your subscription will provide you with asymmetric ideas, macro-insights, and practical tools for better speculating.

Take your time to consider this opportunity, and feel free to reach out if you have any further questions. I look forward to having you as a premium subscriber.

Join below.