Last year – around April – I wrote to you about the mounting fragility in the commercial real estate sector. And specifically how exposed the smaller-medium banks were. High vacancy rates, declining rent prices, a glut of…
Last year – around April – I wrote to you about the mounting fragility in the commercial real estate sector. And specifically how exposed the smaller-medium banks were. High vacancy rates, declining rent prices, a glut of…
There’s a great parable I learned a few years ago while reading ‘The Black Swan’ by Nassim Taleb – the former investor turned author (which is a must read in the Speculators Anonymous Reading List). It’s also perfect…
Credit data in the U.S. continues to indicate increasing fragility for the economy. Specifically in households. Now, I’ve long argued that the credit cycle – aka the loan supply-demand balance – is decelerating. Simply put, banks are…
China’s economy has officially fallen into deflation – for the first time in two years. The consumer price index (CPI) dipped -0.30% year-over-year in July. And the producer inflation index (PPI) remained deeply negative at -4.40%. All…
Over the last month, it appears that the crowd has now taken a full swing from the economic ‘hard’ landing view to the ‘soft’ landing view. Q2 gross domestic product (GDP) came in higher than expected at…
Back in March, I wrote about the pandemic-era savings glut and why it was premature to discuss an impending recession as long as it remained. But have no doubt, that massive $2.1-to-2.3 trillion build-up in consumer savings…
While many media pundits focus on the conflicting jobs data and equity markets, there’s something else sending out warning signs. Something that’s been grossly ignored. I’m talking about bank credit (lending) trends. . . Many may know that I’ve…