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There’s an old saying in economics: “Demographics are destiny.” Why? Because a young and dynamic population is what carries everything – from spending and productivity to workforce and economic growth. And more importantly, the young working population is needed…
There’s an old saying in economics: “Demographics are destiny.” Why? Because a young and dynamic population is what carries everything – from spending and productivity to workforce and economic growth. And more importantly, the young working population is needed…
Last year – around April – I wrote to you about the mounting fragility in the commercial real estate sector. And specifically how exposed the smaller-medium banks were. High vacancy rates, declining rent prices, a glut of…
Last spring, I wrote about the fragility in the auto lending market. And since then, it appears that the auto market is showing increased signs of stress. Especially so for the subprime area. Thus, I believe it’s…
There’s a great parable I learned a few years ago while reading ‘The Black Swan’ by Nassim Taleb – the former investor turned author (which is a must read in the Speculators Anonymous Reading List). It’s also perfect…
Credit data in the U.S. continues to indicate increasing fragility for the economy. Specifically in households. Now, I’ve long argued that the credit cycle – aka the loan supply-demand balance – is decelerating. Simply put, banks are…
China’s economy has officially fallen into deflation – for the first time in two years. The consumer price index (CPI) dipped -0.30% year-over-year in July. And the producer inflation index (PPI) remained deeply negative at -4.40%. All…
Over the last month, it appears that the crowd has now taken a full swing from the economic ‘hard’ landing view to the ‘soft’ landing view. Q2 gross domestic product (GDP) came in higher than expected at…
