My name’s Adem Tumerkan (Twitter: @RadicalAdem) – and I’m the sole analyst and editor here at Speculators Anonymous. . .

Quick Summary:

I’m a macro-speculator and a former market analyst that grew tired of the mainstream financial industry (full details below). 

I’m LONG volatility, optionality, holistic thinking, cycles, and history — I’m SHORT efficient markets, fragility, reductionism, crowd thinking, and interventionism.

Some of my favorite thinkers and traders are Nassim Taleb, Mark Spitznagel, Benoit Mandelbrot, Stanely Druckenmiller, Michael Mauboussin, Ludwig Von Mises, and Hyman Minsky. Their work has greatly influenced my own ideas and investing.

I’m always looking for positively asymmetric (low risk – high reward) opportunities. . .

Full About:

I created Speculators Anonymous as a macro-resource hub for speculators that became sick of the conventional and mainstream dogma.

My goal is simple: to help speculators make better trade decisions while they gain a deeper understanding of financial markets and what’s actually happening in the global-macro world.

Just like those that go to ‘anonymous’ meetings so that they can gain control over their bad habits and handle their vices – this is a place for speculators and the market addicted to come and improve their trading skills and find contrarian ideas.

And as a market fanatic myself – I’m here to share with readers my insight and expose what the mainstream overlooks; such as – unorthodox macro-strategies, finding positive asymmetry (low risk – high reward), and practical trading tools – all the way from shorting foreign currencies with options to tail-hedging.

You see – most finance sites I’ve shuffled through are just awful. They’re full of the same old short-sighted thinking and poor advice with nothing new to offer.

I’m always amazed that some of these highly-intelligent people – with walls of degrees and credentials – get so fixated on their ‘theories’ and crude reductionist ideas (i.e. focusing on individual parts instead of how those parts work together as a whole) – that they end up missing what’s right in front of them.

But Speculators Anonymous is much different than that. . .

For instance – I’m very skeptical. Putting it simply – I don’t believe (nor trust) the mainstream at first glance.

I also believe that in order to make out-sized returns – a speculator must go against the crowd (be contrarian) – by doing the kinds of things that most find very uncomfortable.

Yet that’s where the opportunities are (remember: to beat the market – you must think differently than the market). 

That’s exactly what Speculators Anonymous is about –  a place where traders can come and see the ‘big picture’ that others aren’t bothering to even look at.

Now – to summarize – my site has five core themes:

First – be contrarian. We must look at all things independently and from a skeptical bias. Markets are dynamic, complex systems that don’t fit into any model or equation. So the best approach is understanding that major events with severe unintended consequences can occur from even the smallest events – aka ‘the butterfly effect’

Second – a strong focus on finding positively asymmetric opportunities (i.e. low risk – high reward). Or said otherwise – making sure our ‘worst case scenario’ is small/fixed but our ‘upside scenario’ is massive (aka favorable optionality). Also – make sure to avoid scenarios with negative asymmetry (high risk – low reward) – this is how many great traders ‘blew themselves up’ (like Long Term Capital Management, Victor Neiderhoffer, etc). 

Third – understanding where we are in the current market cycle is extremely important. We don’t want to be buying at the top or selling at the bottom.  It’s that simple.

Fourth – We disregard the dangerous conventional wisdom that volatility is rare. It actually happens much more than the mainstream lets on. Thus instead of fearing disorder, we need to make volatility our friend and position ourselves so that we gain from it – known as ‘Antifragility’. 

And Fifth – A very strong belief that markets flow towards disequilibrium – not equilibrium (contrary to popular financial belief). Once aware of this – we can begin to position ourselves properly. To summarize my favorite rogue economist – Hyman Minsky – long periods of peace are the seeds for future chaos – and vice versa.

So please – enjoy the articles, research, and ideas I’ll be publishing often. And take a look at the Speculators Anonymous Comprehensive Reading List (one of the best sources of books for macro-speculators). And my Premium content.

Know that as time goes on and this site grows, I plan to add analysts, writers, podcasts, trade ideas, forums, and much more (I want to create a solid contrarian and optionality-focused community). 

I can’t promise you I’ll have all the answers – but I do promise that you’ll get my highest quality and most independent views.

And just like you, I’ll be trading, studying, and learning until I can’t any longer. Because I absolutely love doing all this. 

As Charles Bukowski once wrote – “Find what you love. And let it kill you.”

Now – with all that said – welcome to Speculators Anonymous.


Adem Tumerkan
Editor

Bio

Adem Tumerkan – Editor

Before creating Speculators Anonymous – Adem Tumerkan spent years working in the financial industry. He’s previously worked at Stansberry Research as a research analyst. And most recently Palisade Global Investments as a macro-analyst and Chief Editor.

He’s spoken at exclusive international investment conferences and has been featured on investment panels and has written for many top investing and economic outlets. He’s also advised public and private companies in the mining sector, as well as orchestrated and organized private placements.

Adem is a born contrarian and has extensive knowledge of markets, financial history, and economics. He is a value investor and fascinated with cycle theory. But his focus on ‘black swans’ and how to position oneself to make huge returns during volatile times is what really separates him from the rest.

Follow on Twitter: @RadicalAdem